Rail recovery continues with strong growth led by the Elizabeth line

Passenger journeys have seen further strong recovery are are now almost back to pre-pandemic levels according to the Office for Road and Rail.

Data for both the most recent quarter and full year show high levels of growth with a seven per cent growth in the latest quarter on the same period last year.

Meanwhile annual journeys to June 2024 stood at 1.6 bn which was a 13 per cent increase compared to the prior 12 months. That is just a shade shy of 1.7 million in 2019/20.

Figures have been strongly boosted by the growth on the Elizabeth line though numbers are still strong elsewhere despite service cuts across many Train Operating Companies (TOCs) enforced by the Department for Transport.

In addition rolling stock shortages and withdrawals have been seen a number of TOCs including South Western Railway due to long delays in the introduction of Class 701 Arterios as older Class 456s were scrapped.

Southern saw Class 455 and Class 313s go for scrap resulting in remaining stock stretched more thinly across the network. Cuts in south London saw Transport for London consider running into London Bridge to compensate.

Southern are now due to enhance some services using cascaded stock from Great Northern.

Revenue

While rail passenger usage increased there was some concern revenue was lagging though in the most recent quarter revenue exceeded passenger journeys. While journeys rose seven per cent, revenue rose by eight per cent to £2.8 billion in the latest quarter. This is a 8% increase (when adjusted for inflation).

The Elizabeth line is the star of the show yet there will be comfort that TOCs such as Thameslink are still growing and not yet at a plateau.

It’s similar within London on Transport for London services as despite the Elizabeth line, services such as the tube and London Overground are doing well with LO slightly below or sometimes reaching pre-pandemic and pre-Elizabeth line levels based on TfL data.

Unfortunately data isn’t broken down in this release by Metro and mid/long distance routes on London area TOCs such as Southeastern and Southern. That’d offer a greater insight into whether suburban and Metro routes such as those to Dartford are lagging TfL modes in London.

There’s ample potential for more growth on networks such as Southeastern Metro with numerous high density housing developments surrounding many stations as well as the network offering connections with the Elizabeth line which have hardly been utilised.

You can view the data here at the ORR website.

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