Elizabeth line impact in Kent: Passenger numbers up at connecting stations

With annual railway figures out last week the picture of recovery continues as many stations saw growth yet are still behind pre-pandemic numbers, yet in some places numbers have topped levels in 2019.

One such area is a number of stations between Slade Green and north Kent on the line that connects to Abbey Wood. It seems likely that new housing around stations alongside direct access to the Elizabeth line could be key factors.

If we start at the edge of London in Slade Green we see passenger numbers were 1.091 million in the latest figures comparing to 917k the year before and 990k in 2019.

Next up is Dartford where numbers are 4.498m in 2023/24 compared to 3.991m the year before and 4.659m in 2019/20. Almost back to those former levels – and that’s despite many housing developments in the area being pretty slow to rise with many more swellings to be built.

Then it’s sleepy Stone Crossing. This used to be a ghost town. It’s still not exactly Waterloo but at 277k passengers beats pre-pandemic levels of 252k.

A pretty substantial housing development has been built within walking distance of the station.

Greenhithe rather lets the side down with a drop since 2019 but then again new housing in the immediate vicinity of the station hasn’t been built.

Head east and Swanscombe shows growth with 315k versus 254k before covid hit. Hundreds of homes have recently been built a 10-15 minute walk away at a development named Ebbsfleet Cross – despite not being in Ebbsfleet.

Major developments

Northfleet is usually the quietest station in this part of north Kent and that continues, though again tops 2019/20 passenger numbers with 212k against 161k.

Some vast developments are proposed near the station in years to come including the redevelopment of Ebbsfleet FC’s stadium with an 8,000 capacity and 3,500 new homes approved earlier this year. Another big site in the area is Harbour Village with 567 dwellings.

Phase 3 has been approved this month with much of Phases 1 and 2 now finished.

Ebbsfleet station on HS1 is nearby but Northfleet station is a fair bit closer on foot.

After that to the east sees the convergence of lines with stations also served by HS1 and where any Elizabeth line impact is likely minimal, though still some decent recovery can still be seen.

Elizabeth line factor

All stations between Slade Green and Northfleet benefit from direct rail services to the Elizabeth line at Abbey Wood for same station interchange and then fast access to Canary Wharf in 10 minutes, the City in less than 20, Stratford in 20 minutes and much more.

Services aren’t amazing though from north Kent though. Thameslink calls every 30 minutes but skips Slade Green. Southeastern run services to Dartford which require a change and run extremely close to Thameslink offering long gaps in service.

Bexley Council among many others have long called for the Elizabeth line to extend beyond Abbey Wood towards the north of Kent and Ebbsfleet or Gravesend.

This isn’t likely anytime soon. Costs are in the billions and key questions would need to be addressed such as does any extension use the same tracks as Southeastern and Thameslink. Dedicated running lines push up the cost substantially.

Then Abbey Wood station would need a rebuild shortly after opening.

Improving National Rail services

One potential option from 2021 saw National Rail services increase between Northfleet and Abbey Wood with up to 8 trains per hour.

That would likely be sufficient for some time to come and accommodate much forthcoming housing.

Yet Southeastern’s tender for new trains issued two years ago doesn’t foresee a net increase in stock above current levels initially – so what trains would operate extra services?

Perhaps in years to come and passenger growth continues we could see a follow-up order. The tender issued in 2022 does include that option.

The new government do state they want increased housebuilding and improved transport is key to achieving that. If and when any new order is made, numbers of carriages ordered and potential future add-ons will be key to watch.