UK rail passenger usage continues strong recovery
New passenger figures out today continue to show a strong recovery with the UK rail network seeing a nine per cent increase in journeys between July and September 2024 compare to same quarter last year.
Revenue was also up to £2.9 billion in the latest quarter, which is an 11% increase on the £2.6 billion the previous year (when adjusted for inflation).
That now brings passenger numbers back to the same level as 2018, though the incredible popularity of the Elizabeth line bolsters numbers.
At the top nationally was Transpennine Express and Transport for Wales at 25 per cent growth while bottom was Heathrow Express with an eight per cent decline.
Southeastern saw ten per cent growth, Thameslink ten per cent and SWR 12 per cent.
Service recovery
Strong growth is despite many rail companies across the UK are still running substantially fewer services than levels seen in the recent past. As often covered on this site, Southeastern have seen a number of cuts on Metro routes.
Some are back – including those introduced in recent weeks and not covered by the data release today – but a fair few others aren’t.
The Greenwich line used to see six trains per hour all day. It’s now only that level in peaks since this December with an unevenly spaced four per hour the rest of the time. Turn up and go (if using the yardstick of at least every 15 mins) has gone owing to uneven spacing.
Stations such as Deptford sit near large numbers of new developments but service levels were once six trains per hour. Now they’re worse than most of the past 20 years. However they are better than 2023 when gaps of 27 minutes between trains were in place during off-peak daytime periods. Today’s growth figures co-incide with some service restoration seen in May 2024.
Rounder services from the Sidcup line connecting to the Elizabeth line are still peak only while services from north Kent aren’t great despite great demand to head to Abbey Wood for the connection.
The Sidcup line also doesn’t have is two fast trains an hour from New Eltham and the Bexleyheath line is still only 1 tph to Charing Cross rather than two as previously seen.
On the Victoria to Orpington line this month finally saw services revert from just two an hour back to four – but not on Saturdays. A lot of the cuts still in place are on weekends or off-peak despite strong growth in the leisure market.
There’s still scope for improvements back to prior levels. It seems counter productive when it comes to growth to continue running low frequencies and 30 minute gaps in busy, built-up parts of the capital on Sundays and even Saturdays.
If the industry can sort itself out nationally and ensure sufficient staff are working on weekends there appears clear scope for extra passenger numbers and greater revenue.
When new train delays finally get resolved such as with South Western Railway that too should help with short formed stock to entice ridership.
However it’s not all good news. Poor economic data and the risk of a return to recession could see growth stall in the near future.
Still, compared to some doom and gloom back in 2020 it’s not bad at all. Growth is strong both in terms of passengers and revenue.
